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With 15% of tomatoes defective in batches of 20, the Poisson parameter $\lambda$ and $P(X=0)$ are:
A$\lambda=3$, $P=0.0498$
B$\lambda=0.15$, $P=0.8607$
C$\lambda=3$, $P=0.0388$
D$\lambda=20$, $P=0.0498$
Answer & Solution
Correct answer: A. $\lambda=3$, $P=0.0498$
1. The Poisson approximation to a binomial uses $\lambda=np$.
2. Here $\lambda=20\times 0.15=3$.
3. Then $P(x)=\dfrac{\lambda^{x}e^{-\lambda}}{x!}$, so $P(0)=\dfrac{3^{0}e^{-3}}{0!}=e^{-3}$.
4. $e^{-3}=0.0498$ to four decimal places.
5. $0.0388$ is the binomial value for $x=0$, not the Poisson one; $\lambda=0.15$ mistakes the proportion for the mean count.
_Source: NECTA ACSEE 2023 Advanced Mathematics 142/2, Question 1: Probability_
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