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A woman develops breast cancer with probability 0.143 and tests negative with probability 0.85, and both occur with probability 0.0029. What is the probability of one or the other?
AThe probability is 0.9901
BThe probability is 0.9930
CThe probability is 0.8529
DThe probability is 0.1459
Answer & Solution
Correct answer: A. The probability is 0.9901
1. The addition rule is P(cancer) plus P(negative) minus P(both).
2. The two separate probabilities add to 0.143 plus 0.85, which is 0.993.
3. The joint probability is 0.0029.
4. Subtracting gives 0.993 minus 0.0029, which is 0.9901.
5. Stopping at 0.9930 forgets to remove the small overlap.
6. The value 0.1459 adds the two probabilities that share the overlap rather than taking the union.
_Source: OpenStax Introductory Business Statistics (CC BY 4.0), Ch 3 "Probability Topics", section 3.3 Two Basic Rules of Probability_
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