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You do not know whether two events are mutually exclusive. What should you assume?
AAssume they are mutually exclusive until shown otherwise
BAssume they are not mutually exclusive until shown otherwise
CAssume they are independent of each other for the moment
DAssume they share exactly half of their outcomes for now
Answer & Solution
Correct answer: B. Assume they are not mutually exclusive until shown otherwise
1. Mutual exclusivity is a strong claim, since it says the joint probability is exactly zero.
2. Assuming it without evidence would let you drop the intersection term from the addition rule.
3. So the safe default is to assume the events are not mutually exclusive until you can show otherwise.
4. The parallel default for independence is to assume the events are dependent until proved otherwise.
_Source: OpenStax Introductory Business Statistics (CC BY 4.0), Ch 3 "Probability Topics", section 3.2 Independent and Mutually Exclusive Events_
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