Order the reasoning: from a partition to a posterior
Read exercise and reference answers
- Steps
- The sample space is split into disjoint causes
- Each cause carries a prior probability
- Each cause makes the observation more or less likely
- Adding the branches gives the overall chance of the observation
- One branch divided by that total is the revised chance of that cause
This is Bayes' theorem told as a sequence rather than a formula. Source: syllabus Maths Part II, Ch 13 Probability.