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A nucleus has already survived many half-lives without decaying. What is its chance of surviving one more half-life?
ALess than 50 percent, since it is due to decay soon
B100 percent, since it has proven especially stable
C0 percent, since old nuclei cannot survive further
D50 percent, the same as any other half-life
Answer & Solution
Correct answer: D. 50 percent, the same as any other half-life
1. Nuclear decay is described as a purely statistical process, similar to flipping a coin.
2. Even after surviving hundreds of half-lives, a nucleus still has a 50 percent chance of surviving one more.
3. Past survival does not make future decay more or less likely, so the chance does not fall below 50 percent.
4. It also does not rise to a guaranteed 100 percent, and it never drops to a guaranteed 0 percent either.
5. So a steady 50 percent chance is correct.
_Source: OpenStax Physics (CC BY 4.0), Ch 22 "The Atom", section 22.3 Half Life and Radiometric Dating_
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