AST Ltd. has early-completion bonuses on a ₹25 cr contract: 15% bonus at 25% likelihood, 10% at 40%, 5% at 15%, none at 20%. Using the EXPECTED VALUE method, the variable-consideration estimate for the early-completion bonus is approximately:

Expected value = Σ(probability × bonus amount). 0.25 × 15% × ₹25 cr = ₹0.9375 cr; 0.40 × 10% × ₹25 cr = ₹1.00 cr; 0.15 × 5% × ₹25 cr = ₹0.1875 cr; 0.20 × nil = 0. Sum = ₹2.125 cr ≈ ₹2.13 cr. The most-likely-amount method (the 40%-likely 10% bonus) would give ₹2.50 cr — different method, different result.