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Pierre, an amateur chef, drops an average of 1.5 pieces of egg shell into each cake he bakes, so X ~ P(1.5). If you buy one of his cakes each week for six weeks, what is the probability that NONE of the six cakes contain any egg shell?

AAbout 0.2231
BAbout 1.3386
CAbout 0.7769
DAbout 0.0001
Answer & Solution
Correct answer: D. About 0.0001
1. For one cake, P(x=0) = e^-1.5 ≈ 0.2231. 2. The six weekly cakes are independent, so the chance all six have zero egg shell is (0.2231)^6. 3. (0.2231)^6 ≈ 0.0001. 4. Option A is the probability for a single cake, not all six, and option C exceeds one, which is impossible for a probability. _Source: OpenStax Introductory Statistics (CC BY 4.0), Ch 4 "Discrete Random Variables", section 4.6 Poisson Distribution_
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