alleryStart learning →Long-context scaling laws (next-token loss)
AReliably predict downstream ICL performance
BMay NOT reliably predict ICL performance
COnly apply to text generation tasks specifically
DPredict performance on math but not on translation
Answer & Solution
Correct answer: B. May NOT reliably predict ICL performance
Section 4.8 shows next-token-loss scaling laws do not reliably predict ICL performance on problem-solving and reasoning.
Lower loss does not always mean better downstream ICL.
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